In towns shaped by fear and instability, daily survival has become the only certainty. The World Bank’s new report reveals a crisis unfolding quietly across 39 economies—a crisis where conflict isn’t just violence; it’s poverty, hunger, illiteracy, and stalled futures.

Since 2020, per‑capita GDP in these countries has dropped by 1.8% a year, even as other developing economies rose by 2.9%. Now, 421 million people in those fragile nations live on under $3 a day—more than those in the rest of the world combined. And by 2030, that number could climb to 435 million, accounting for nearly 60% of the globe’s extreme poor.

“For the last three years, the world’s attention has been on the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East… Yet more than 70% of people suffering from conflict and instability are Africans. Untreated, these conditions become chronic,” warns Indermit Gill, Chief Economist at the World Bank. “Half of the countries facing conflict today have been in such conditions for 15 years or more. Misery on this scale is inevitably contagious.”

Developing countries overall have managed to reduce extreme poverty to about 6%. But in conflict-ridden nations, nearly 40% of the population remains trapped in extreme deprivation. That’s nearly two in every five people, each living on roughly $1,500 a year—a figure that has barely budged since 2010, while other developing countries have more than doubled to $6,900.

When it comes to work, the numbers are equally stark. Of 270 million working-age adults in these fragile economies, only half are employed—a failure to keep pace with population growth.

“Economic stagnation—rather than growth—has been the norm in economies hit by conflict and instability over the past decade and a half,” notes Ayhan Kose, Deputy Chief Economist at the World Bank. “Jumpstarting growth and development here will not be easy, but it can be done—and it has been done before.”

War Is Advancing, Development Is Retreating

Conflict has spiked both in frequency and violence. Conflict zones now represent zones where:

• Life expectancy is just 64 years, seven years behind other developing countries
• Infant mortality is double the average
• 18% suffer acute food insecurity—18 times higher than elsewhere
• 90% of school-age children fail minimum reading standards

More than half of these economies have endured over 15 years of persistent instability. And after high-intensity conflicts—where 150+ people are killed per million each year—GDP per capita typically plunges 20% over five years.

The report urges something ambitious: pre-emptive action. Early-warning systems could alert global leaders to rising danger long before violence erupts. Strengthening governance is seen as essential to preventing cycles of conflict.

Spoils of War? Or Seeds of Renewal?

Even amid crisis, the potential for change exists. These economies are often rich in natural resources—minerals, oil, gas, forests, coal—amounting to more than 13% of GDP, three times the share in other developing countries. Nations like the DRC, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe hold metals crucial for green-energy transitions.

Their populations are also getting younger. By 2055, nearly two-thirds of their people will be of working age—unlike shrinking labor pools elsewhere. But this “demographic dividend” hinges on heavy investment in health, education, infrastructure, and the creation of formal jobs.

What Needs to Happen

To turn peril into promise, the World Bank highlights three urgent priorities:

1. First, reignite growth by lifting investment barriers, improving business conditions, and raising labor productivity—where even a 1% productivity rise can raise FDI by 0.7%.
2. Second, deepen impact by integrating trade, strengthening governance, expanding education, and ensuring FDI boosts sectors where women are included and good jobs are created.
3. Third, global solidarity—technical help, de‑risking private capital, and restoring support for those hardest hit by conflict.

Why It Matters for Asia

While much of the spotlight is on Africa and the Middle East, parts of South and Southeast Asia also mirror this pattern. Afghanistan, Myanmar, and pockets of Pakistan and the Philippines have faced recurring conflict, economic stagnation, and humanitarian crises.

Asia’s demographic youthfulness is a potential asset—but only if stability is rebuilt and infrastructure strengthened. Without global and regional solidarity, these gains will remain out of reach.

Final Thought

Conflict isn’t just a disruption—it’s a development crisis in disguise. When instability gains a foothold, its effects ripple beyond borders and generations. And without bold policies and backing, the goal of ending extreme poverty slips further from view.